Economic ripple effects of Osaka-Kansai Expo -Economic impact of the Greater EXPO and estimates based on the latest data.

The objective of this paper is to present an estimate of the economic ripple effects of the Osaka-Kansai Expo based on the most recent data on Expo-related project costs and other pertinent factors. It argues that an expanded Expo (a ‘Greater Expo’) is of great importance. The background to the estimates presented in this analysis include the accelerating inflation rate as well as increasing supply constraints due to the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Despite these challenging circumstances, we maintain that hosting the Osaka-Kansai Expo is of great significance. The Expo represents an invaluable opportunity for the Kansai economy, and by extension, the Japanese economy, to embark on a path of recovery. By seizing this opportunity, we can make a valuable investment in the future, ensuring a successful turnaround. Below is a summary of the results and implications of this analysis:

 

1. The final demand for the current period is estimated to be JPY 727.5 billion for Expo-related projects and JPY 891.3 billion for consumption expenditures. The former is estimated to be JPY 138.1 billion (+23.4%) and the latter JPY 104.7 billion (+13.3%) higher than our previous forecast.
2. The economic ripple effects were calculated based on the final demand derived from the APIR’s Interregional Input-Output Table for Kansai. The induced production amount is JPY 2,745.7 billion in the baseline scenario, which assumes that the Expo will take place only at the Yumeshima site. In the Greater Expo Case 1, the induced production amount is JPY 3,238.4 billion, which assumes an increased number of nights by visitors related to events outside the Yumeshima site. Finally, in the Greater Expo Case 2, the induced production amount is JPY 3,366.7 billion. Case 2 assumes an increase in repeat visitors. These amounts are respectively 15.6% (JPY 369.8 billion), 16.2% (JPY 450.9 billion), and 16.8% (JPY 484.9 billion) higher than our previous forecast.
3. Our estimates are based on calculations of final demand generated under a specific industrial structure. Since we assume that there are no distinct supply constraints, the results of this analysis should be considered rough estimates.
4. It is imperative to alleviate supply constraints in order to achieve the projected outcomes. To this end, the utilization of DX (‘Digital Transformation’) will be pivotal. DX will enhance Japan’s potential growth rate. Additionally, in order to attract overseas visitors, it is crucial to refine the availability of travel options in conjunction with the Expo.