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Policy Brief
Since its establishment in 2011, the Asia Pacific Institute of Research has been active in conducting research projects, publishing books by leading specialists, issuing annual publications, and circulating research findings through reports, forums and symposiums.
Building on these activities, APIR is now launching the APIR Policy Brief series. APIR Policy Briefs offer expert analysis and concrete proposals that are timely and relevant to some of the major issues facing Japan and the Asia Pacific region today. Each policy brief will focus on one topic, providing insightful discussion of the problems and possibilities and carrying a clear message for future policy direction. Our aim is to make useful contributions to the policy process both directly and indirectly, through regional and national governments, the business community, and other stakeholders.
Authors include Toshihiko Hayashi, APIR’s Research Director and emeritus professor of economics at Osaka University, and other senior and resident researchers. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of APIR on any of the policy questions concerned. The APIR Policy Brief series aims to stimulate thoughtful and open-minded policy debate within Japan, the Asia Pacific region and beyond. We welcome comments by email to pbrief@apir.or.jp .
Discussion Paper
The empirical and analytical research we produce is based on independent study or the work of research groups within the Institute. We consult and collaborate with a wide range of partners, with the goal of to deepening research and enriching policy debates in the future. The views expressed in the papers we publish are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of APIR.
Insight
Commentary papers offer insightful discussions of the very latest socio-economic and policy issues, while special Trend Watch reports are published monthly, each focusing on a specific topic. Discussion Papers provide detailed empirical research on major issues, and Analysis Reports include up-to-the-minute data on current economic trends .
Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
APIR provides weekly and monthly assessments of current economic conditions and future outlooks for the United States and Japan. We also provide detailed quarterly predictions for the economies of Kansai and Japan.
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Economic ripple effects of Osaka-Kansai Expo -Economic impact of the Greater EXPO and estimates based on the latest data.
Insight
Insight » Trend Watch
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
The objective of this paper is to present an estimate of the economic ripple effects of the Osaka-Kansai Expo based on the most recent data on Expo-related project costs and other pertinent factors. It argues that an expanded Expo (a ‘Greater Expo’) is of great importance. The background to the estimates presented in this analysis include the accelerating inflation rate as well as increasing supply constraints due to the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Despite these challenging circumstances, we maintain that hosting the Osaka-Kansai Expo is of great significance. The Expo represents an invaluable opportunity for the Kansai economy, and by extension, the Japanese economy, to embark on a path of recovery. By seizing this opportunity, we can make a valuable investment in the future, ensuring a successful turnaround. Below is a summary of the results and implications of this analysis:
- The final demand for the current period is estimated to be JPY 727.5 billion for Expo-related projects and JPY 891.3 billion for consumption expenditures. The former is estimated to be JPY 138.1 billion (+23.4%) and the latter JPY 104.7 billion (+13.3%) higher than our previous forecast.
- The economic ripple effects were calculated based on the final demand derived from the APIR’s Interregional Input-Output Table for Kansai. The induced production amount is JPY 2,745.7 billion in the baseline scenario, which assumes that the Expo will take place only at the Yumeshima site. In the Greater Expo Case 1, the induced production amount is JPY 3,238.4 billion, which assumes an increased number of nights by visitors related to events outside the Yumeshima site. Finally, in the Greater Expo Case 2, the induced production amount is JPY 3,366.7 billion. Case 2 assumes an increase in repeat visitors. These amounts are respectively 15.6% (JPY 369.8 billion), 16.2% (JPY 450.9 billion), and 16.8% (JPY 484.9 billion) higher than our previous forecast.
- Our estimates are based on calculations of final demand generated under a specific industrial structure. Since we assume that there are no distinct supply constraints, the results of this analysis should be considered rough estimates.
- It is imperative to alleviate supply constraints in order to achieve the projected outcomes. To this end, the utilization of DX (‘Digital Transformation’) will be pivotal. DX will enhance Japan’s potential growth rate. Additionally, in order to attract overseas visitors, it is crucial to refine the availability of travel options in conjunction with the Expo.
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Economic ripple effects of Osaka-Kansai Expo -Economic impact of the Greater EXPO and estimates based on the latest data.
Insight
Insight » Trend Watch
/ DATE :
ABSTRACT
The objective of this paper is to present an estimate of the economic ripple effects of the Osaka-Kansai Expo based on the most recent data on Expo-related project costs and other pertinent factors. It argues that an expanded Expo (a ‘Greater Expo’) is of great importance. The background to the estimates presented in this analysis include the accelerating inflation rate as well as increasing supply constraints due to the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Despite these challenging circumstances, we maintain that hosting the Osaka-Kansai Expo is of great significance. The Expo represents an invaluable opportunity for the Kansai economy, and by extension, the Japanese economy, to embark on a path of recovery. By seizing this opportunity, we can make a valuable investment in the future, ensuring a successful turnaround. Below is a summary of the results and implications of this analysis:
- The final demand for the current period is estimated to be JPY 727.5 billion for Expo-related projects and JPY 891.3 billion for consumption expenditures. The former is estimated to be JPY 138.1 billion (+23.4%) and the latter JPY 104.7 billion (+13.3%) higher than our previous forecast.
- The economic ripple effects were calculated based on the final demand derived from the APIR’s Interregional Input-Output Table for Kansai. The induced production amount is JPY 2,745.7 billion in the baseline scenario, which assumes that the Expo will take place only at the Yumeshima site. In the Greater Expo Case 1, the induced production amount is JPY 3,238.4 billion, which assumes an increased number of nights by visitors related to events outside the Yumeshima site. Finally, in the Greater Expo Case 2, the induced production amount is JPY 3,366.7 billion. Case 2 assumes an increase in repeat visitors. These amounts are respectively 15.6% (JPY 369.8 billion), 16.2% (JPY 450.9 billion), and 16.8% (JPY 484.9 billion) higher than our previous forecast.
- Our estimates are based on calculations of final demand generated under a specific industrial structure. Since we assume that there are no distinct supply constraints, the results of this analysis should be considered rough estimates.
- It is imperative to alleviate supply constraints in order to achieve the projected outcomes. To this end, the utilization of DX (‘Digital Transformation’) will be pivotal. DX will enhance Japan’s potential growth rate. Additionally, in order to attract overseas visitors, it is crucial to refine the availability of travel options in conjunction with the Expo.